Sector outlook and recommendations: We expect the margin to further recover in Q1FY24 onwards, driven by further fuel cost cool-off and rebound in cement prices. Looking at current fuel trends, we believe input cost will cool off by INR 100-150 per MT QoQ in Q1FY24. We trim our industry unitary EBITDA estimates for FY23/24/25E by INR 10-20 per MT each on sub-par cement price increases. We expect the margin to rebound by INR 170/40 per MT YoY in FY24/25E respectively to INR 1,000/1,040 per MT. Hence, we remain positive about the sector. We maintain our BUY ratings on UltraTech, ACC, Dalmia Bharat, Nuvoco Vistas, Birla Corp, JK Lakshmi, and Orient Cements. We maintain ADD ratings on Ambuja Cement, Ramco Cements, Star Cement, Sagar Cements and Deccan Cement. We maintain REDUCE ratings on Shree Cement, Heidelberg Cement and JK Cement. Our top picks are UltraTech Cement, Dalmia Bharat, and JK Lakshmi. We estimate our coverage universe of 15 companies to deliver strong 9/14% YoY/QoQ volume growth (four-year CAGR: 7%) in Q4FY23. We expect strong volume offtake by UltraTech Cement, Dalmia Bharat, Nuvoco Vistas, Birla Corp., JK Lakshmi and Star Cement QoQ. We expect volume decline QoQ by ACC and Ambuja (Himachal plant shutdown). We estimate average industry utilisation of ~86% vs 78/85% QoQ/YoY
Issue Snapshot: Issue Open: Mar 01 Mar 03, 2023 Price Band: Rs. 560 590 *Issue Size: 412.12 cr (Fresh Issue of Rs 180 cr + offer for sale of 3,934,243 eq sh) Reservation for: QIB atleast 75% eq sh Non-Institutional upto 15% eq sh ((including 1/3rd for applications between Rs.2 lakhs to Rs.10 lakhs)) Retail upto 10% eq sh Face Value: Rs 5 Book value: Rs 129.38 (September 30, 2022) Bid size: - 25 equity shares and in multiples thereof 100% Book built Issue IPO Note- Divgi Torqtransfer Systems Limited
Issue Snapshot: Issue Open: Dec 20 Dec 22, 2022 Price Band: Rs. 234 247 *Issue Size: 475.0 cr (Fresh Issue of Rs 175 cr + offer for sale of Rs 300 cr) Reservation for: QIB upto 50% eq sh Non-Institutional atleast 15% eq sh ((including 1/3rd for applications between Rs.2 lakhs to Rs.10 lakhs)) Retail atleast 35% eq sh Face Value: Rs 5 Book value: Rs 78.39 (September 30, 2022) Bid size: - 60 equity shares and in multiples thereof 100% Book built Issue Elin Electronics Limited
Issue Snapshot: Issue Open: Dec 13 Dec 15, 2022 Price Band: Rs. 481 506 (Discount of Rs 48 for all eligible employees) *Issue Size: 552.0 cr (Fresh issue of Rs 150.0 cr + Offer for sale of Rs 402.0 cr) Reservation for: QIB upto 50% eq sh Non-Institutional atleast 15% eq sh ((including 1/3rd for applications between Rs.2 lakhs to Rs.10 lakhs)) Retail atleast 35% eq sh Face Value: Rs 5 Book value: Rs 73.25 (June 30, 2022) Bid size: - 29 equity shares and in multiples thereof 100% Book built Issue IPO Note - Landmark Cars Limited
Issue Open: Dec 12 Dec 14, 2022 Price Band: Rs. 340 357 *Issue Size: 26,900,530 eq sh (Entirely Offer for sale) Reservation for: QIB upto 50% eq sh Non-Institutional atleast 15% eq sh ((including 1/3rd for applications between Rs.2 lakhs to Rs.10 lakhs)) Retail atleast 35% eq sh Face Value: Rs 2 Book value: Rs 58.40 (September 30, 2022) Bid size: - 42 equity shares and in multiples thereof 100% Book built Issue IPO NOTE- Sula Vineyards Limited
Issue Snapshot: Issue Open: Nov 30 Dec 02, 2022 Price Band: Rs. 548 577 *Issue Size: 14,481,942 eq sh (Entirely Offer for sale) Reservation for: QIB upto 7,240,970 eq sh Non-Institutional atleast 2,172,292 eq sh ((including 1/3rd for applications between Rs.2 lakhs to Rs.10 lakhs)) Retail atleast 5,068,680 eq sh Face Value: Rs 10 Book value: Rs 158.18 (June 30, 2022) Bid size: - 25 equity shares and in multiples thereof 100% Book built Issue IPO Note- Uniparts India Limited
